The Madden Sim Bags Its Sixth Victory in Seven Years [Madden]

For the sixth time in seven years – and the first time picking an underdog – EA Sports’ Madden Simulation has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner. But it’s not as simple, or as complicated, as one might think. It’s a no-frills simulation, said Anthony Stevenson, senior product manager on the Madden NFL team. This year it was done on an Xbox 360; they loaded the latest roster update and depth chart, booted up a game with ranked-match parameters (basically, All-Pro difficulty) started it, then ran the game from kickoff to final gun in the Super Sim menu, which takes 23 seconds. (I timed it.) Last week, the Madden Sim spit out New Orleans as a 35-31 winner. In reality, the Saints won 31-17. That’s all there is to it. It’s commercial code and currently available DLC. No tweaked gameplay sliders, no custom rosters or depth charts, no taking averages off of 100 simulations, no secret sauce. It’s something you can run at home yourself with your copy of the game. “We sim the game one time,” Stevenson said. “That’s what’s unique about the NFL, and it’s what the Saints proved yesterday, it’s any given Sunday, you could see any team winning out. And the Saints did, despite being, what, five point underdogs?” Now, yes, seven attempts is not a large sample size. One could hit six straight coin flips in a row. And, this is the first year that the Madden Sim picked the underdog to win straight up. (Only three underdogs have won the past 10 Super Bowls). But a closer look shows that the Madden Sim, while not the kind of supercomputing that predicts weather or performs risk analysis in global thermonuclear war, isn’t just getting lucky. In addition to being 6-1 straight up (missing New York’s upset of the heavily favored Patriots in 2008), it’s 5-2 against the spread, missing only last year and the Patriots-Eagles Super Bowl of 2005. Granted, the Madden sim has gone with the overdog in six of its seven tries. Just not this year, making its Saints pick a little more impressive. Further, according to its own team ratings the Saints were the lesser team. New Orleans began the year at 74 (to Indianapolis’ 87) and later improved to a 93 (to the Colts’ 94). That said, I wouldn’t take the Madden Sim’s advice on the over/under. It consistently returns higher scoring predictions than occur in real life. Over the past six years it’s been over the actual point total by an average of nearly 22 points, and lifetime it is 3-4 against the over/under line. Stevenson was proud that the Madden Sim delivered a game-changing special teams play that, while it did not happen in the real Super Bowl, mimicked the effect of New Orleans’ shocking onsides-kick recovery to open the second half. In the Madden Sim, Reggie Bush returned a punt 46 yards to put the Saints on top 28-24. While the Colts briefly regained the lead in that sim, “it is cool that our game also predicted a pivotal turning point on special teams.” Actually, having run nearly a dozen sims of my own (all of them as unscientific as EA Sports’) I can attest to the conspicuous impact of the Saints’ special teams. I must have seen half a dozen kicks or punts returned for touchdowns, plus a couple recoveries off botched punt snaps or blocks. One thing the Madden Sim did not get right: Saints QB Drew Brees’ otherworldly accuracy, abetted by a short-gain passing strategy. The Madden Sim had him at 25 of 37 for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Brees was 32 of 39 (including 29 of his last 32) but he did have fewer yards (288) and touchdowns (two) than in the real game. Stevenson thinks he knows the reason why. “When I was watching the game, it seemed like there were not more than one or two passes thrown (on the fly) for more than 15 yards,” Stevenson said. “In our sim, you would have seen several deep passes at least attempted if not completed.” That backs up the simmed Brees’ reduced accuracy but greater results. Whatever the case, with this kind of accuracy after seven years, the Madden Sim has emerged as a counterpart to the Madden Curse for reliably predictive if statistically unproven performance. Not that Stevenson wishes the cover curse to continue. Brees is a leading candidate for inclusion on Madden NFL 11’s cover, and Stevenson was pulling hard for him and the Saints.

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The Madden Sim Bags Its Sixth Victory in Seven Years [Madden]

Weekend Coupons: Card Sharks [Dealtaku]

So yesterday, Walmart slashed prices on Xbox Live subscription cards, and Amazon followed suit. Then everyone started offering $50 gift cards for Elite console purchases. This is madness! This is Weekend Coupons ! Hardware • Walmart is selling a 12-month Xbox Live subscription card for $30 – that’s $20 off. Offer is good for the Internet or in-store (check for delivery). Big thanks to reader amacvane for spying this. [ Walmart ] • Lo and behold, once Walmart did this Friday, Amazon returned fire, matching the price. And as Dealzon notes, it might actually beat the price as most won’t pay any kind of tax (or shipping) on the purchase through Amazon. [ Dealzon ] • Retailers are continuing to clear off holiday console stock. The Xbox 360 Elite bundle, for $299.99, gets $50 gift cards thrown in at both Best Buy and Newegg (Newegg through Thursday). And the Arcade is down to $174 on both Amazon and Dell. [ Dealzon ] • Gamestop felt left out, so they, too, are offering a $50 gift card if you take an Elite off their hands. [ GameStop ] • The PSPGo makes its Weekend Coupons debut, via Newegg, which is offering the handheld for $20 less than anywhere else. It’s $209.99 for white, $219.99 for black. [ Dealzon ] • And if consoles must go, that means controllers, too. Remember, never pay MSRP for that extra controller. Newegg and Amazon are doing up Xbox 360 controllers for $30, in flavors both black and white . [Dealzon] Software • Beginning this instant – as in, right now – Amazon’s offering a lightning-round deal on “role-playing first person shooting for the PC.” To me that means either Borderlands or Fallout 3. Which is it? [ Cheap Ass Gamer ] • It might be nearly two years old, but Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, new in the box, is down to used prices on Newegg. $19.99 and free shipping puts it in your hot little hands [ TechDealDigger ] • Also from Newegg, the Resident Evil 5 Collector’s Edition on PS3 for eight bucks more than the lowest price on the game itself. That’s $44.99, to be precise. The package gets you the game, a Redfield action figure, Kijuju pendant and other swag. [ Dealzon ] • Steam’s got an interesting offer good until the end of today (PST) only. The indie PC racing game Zero Gear (which released Tuesday) is free for Saturday only My error. The game has a free-play day all today. It is then $14.99 on Sunday (a savings of $5). So getting the game free today does not mean you keep it tomorrow. [ Steam ] As always, smart gamers can find values any day of the week, so if you’ve run across a deal, share it with us in the comments.

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Weekend Coupons: Card Sharks [Dealtaku]

What Budget Games Did Japan Flock To In 2009? [Only In Japan]

There comes a time when even underappreciated PlayStation 3 games like Valkyria Chronicles can outsell the Metal Gear Solid and Grand Theft Autos of the world. And, at least in Japan, it’s when those games reach “greatest hits” budget prices. Famitsu—and we’re guessing parent company Enterbrain—have tracked some of 2009’s bestselling games that bear the budget price, known on the Sony side as “PlayStation 3 the Best” titles and on the Microsoft side, “Platinum Hits.” We realize you probably weren’t asking yourself this morning, “What price reduced games from 2008 sold pretty darn well in Japan in 2009?” but Famitsu is here to answer that unasked question. The two bestsellers are Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare on the PS3 side, Ace Combat 6: Fires of Liberation on the 360 side. And that’s where the race is closest, as the PlayStation brand is clearly winning the budget priced war in numbers, according to Famitsu. Here’s the list. PlayStation 3 the Best 01. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 88,753 02. Everybody’s Golf 5 – 88,346 03. Valkyria Chronicles – 81,625 04. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 59,092 05. Yakuza Kenzan! – 55,226 06. Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune – 39,679 07. Grand Theft Auto IV – 33,202 08. Devil May Cry 4 – 23,770 09. Mahjong Fight Club – 20,656 10. Way of the Samurai 3 Plus – 20,593 Xbox 360 Platinum Hits 01. Ace Combat 6: Fires of Liberation – 86,534 02. Beautiful Katamari – 74,166 03. Halo 3 – 25,508 04. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 24,567 05. Left 4 Dead – 12,988 06. Armored Core 4 Answer – 10,974 07. Idolmaster Twins – 6,621 08. Devil May Cry 4 – 6,360 09. Grand Theft Auto IV – 6,210 10. Fable 2 – 6,151 年末年始はPS3&Xbox 360廉価版で遊ぶのもあり！−−2009年廉価版ソフト販売本数TOP10 [Famitsu]

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What Budget Games Did Japan Flock To In 2009? [Only In Japan]

Famitsu Awards New Super Mario Bros. Wii A Perfect Score [Famitsu]

Joining last month’s Bayonetta 40/40 score, this month’s New Super Mario Bros. Wii has been given a perfect score from Japanese game magazine Famitsu. The publication has stated that just moving Mario around is amusing, co-op play is fun and single player is a good time as well. Critics score games on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the best score. The four scores are then tallied, and 40 is perfecto. Today, only eleven, well, now twelve games have been awarded the perfect score. The latest is multi-platform title Bayonetta. Multi-platform Bayonetta is the first game to appear on the Xbox 360 to receive this score. To review, here are the previous 40/40 games: 1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (1998) 
2. Soulcalibur (1999) 
3. Vagrant Story (2000) 
4. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (2003)
 5. Nintendogs (2005)
 6. Final Fantasy XII (2006)
 7. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008)
 8. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (2008)
 9. 428 (2008)
 10. Dragon Quest IX (2009)
 11. Monster Hunter Tri (2009) 12. Bayonetta (2009) To recap: No games in 2001, 2002, 2004 or 2007 got a 40/40, but three games in 2008 and four games in 2009 have been awarded the magic number. What’s next, five 40/40 games in 2010? Six in 2011? OH WAIT. Final Fantasy XIII comes out this year in Japan — whatever will Famitsu do?

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Famitsu Awards New Super Mario Bros. Wii A Perfect Score [Famitsu]

Hideo Kojima A "Huge Fan" Of Twilight, Will Judge Your Fan Art [Metal Gear Solid]

Metal Gear Solid creator Hideo Kojima is apparently a fan of Stephanie Meyer’s Twilight series, opting in to judge a fan art contest themed around the second entry in the romantic vampire action series, New Moon. That’s according to a release from Japanese artist network pixiv—pretty much the overseas equivalent of deviantArt—which has tapped Kojima, Evangelion character designer and manga creator Yoshiyuki Sadamoto, and Twilight manga artist Ryuji Gotsubo to judge a Twilight: New Moon fan art contest. Kojima, who I’d wager aligns himself with Team Jacob, is reportedly a “huge fan” of Twilight, according to the Anime News Network’s translation of the release. He’ll contribute his expert opinion as well as a signed copy of Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, apparently, to the list of grand prizes. If you’ve got some Edward Cullen fan art lying around—perhaps in the Yoji Shinkawa style—you might want to get a Japanese speaking friend to register with pixiv and submit it on your behalf. Otherwise, expect this contest to be an ” only in Japan ” kinda thing. The more cynical of you may see this as an attempt to broaden the exposure of things like Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker to a very passionate fan base. But I’m betting you’re way, way off. Way off. Eva, Metal Gear Creators Judge Twilight Art Contest [Anime News Network via GameSetWatch ]

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Hideo Kojima A "Huge Fan" Of Twilight, Will Judge Your Fan Art [Metal Gear Solid]

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots, is a next-gen experience complete with top-of-the-line graphics and surround sound designed for the Sony PlayStation 3. Featuring the most revealing display of Kojima Production’s premier title, MSG4 details the world where Snake must under go his final mission. In a world overrun by private military companies (PMCs), wars are no longer fought over nations or ideologies. Instead, the wars of the future are micro-managed by overarching PMCs, right down to the bullet. New gadgets and abilities fuel Snake’s journey deep into the enemy domains of the Middle East, South America, and beyond. New gear includes “Metal Gear Mk. II,” the ultimate reconnaissance tool, and “Solid Eye,” which gives Snake real-time information on enemies and his surroundings. Old timer Snake returns for what is slated as the final installment in the Metal Gear series. View larger. New and old characters abound in MGS4. View larger. PMCs have run amok and the w (more…)